From June to September this year, the domestic price of titanium dioxide changed continuously for a year and a half. The mainstream quoted price of sulphuric acid rutile titanium dioxide dropped from nearly 20,000 yuan/ton to less than 17,000 yuan/ton. After the National Day holiday, the enthusiasm for bullish titanium dioxide prices was once again ignited as the leading companies announced that they had issued letters of intensification.

Titanium dioxide this time is expected to return to high prices it?

Reporters recently interviewed industry sources were informed that the current limited production of titanium dioxide, titanium dioxide business stocks are generally low, supporting the price increases, but at the same time, the downstream demand is not satisfactory, product prices are also difficult to fly into the sky.

Price letter reproduction

In successive rounds of rise, the domestic price of titanium dioxide has risen from the trough in early 2016 to the highest point. In response to the callback, the market in October was once again subject to price increases for titanium dioxide companies.

On the evening of October 10, Long Buili announced that due to the recent increase in raw material prices, the sales price of the company's sulfuric acid method titanium dioxide products was increased by RMB 500/ton. Prior to this, the company has successively increased the sales price of sulfuric acid-based rutile-type titanium dioxide products by 500 yuan/ton, and raised the sales price of chlorinated titanium dioxide products by 300 yuan/ton.

At the same time, following the closing of the National Day holiday on titanium dioxide, Shandong Dongjia Group raised its foreign price by 1,000 yuan/ton on the first day after the holiday, and its foreign trade price increased by US$150/ton.

First-tier companies adjusted prices, and second and third-tier companies followed suit.

Data from the Business Club shows that from October 11 onwards, Sichuan Lizhe vanadium titanium and Jiangsu Zhenti chemical rutile titanium dioxide prices rose by 500 yuan/ton, Panzhihua Haifengxin chemical raised 600 yuan/ton, Yunnan Xinli Titanium and Guangxi Jinlong Titanium will increase the chlorination of titanium dioxide 500 yuan / ton and 600 yuan / ton. At present, most of the domestic mainstream prices of sulfuric acid-based rutile and anatase-type titanium dioxide are in the range of 16,500-18,000 yuan/ton and 14,000-1.5 yuan/ton.

Zhuo Chuang analyst Wang Zhishun also introduced that after the National Day holiday, due to the company's own inventory is low, domestic companies raised the price of titanium dioxide 500-1000 yuan / ton, the overall market bullish atmosphere gradually thickening. Only two or three days after the holiday, domestic companies basically adjust the offer is completed, the current mainstream offer rutile titanium dioxide to the implementation of more than 17,500-18,000 yuan / ton level.

General low inventory of enterprises

"In the second and second quarter of this year, the titanium dioxide price market gradually weakened. The demand for advanced overdrafts was superimposed on the traditional off-season, and the pressure on the stockholders to take the goods was high." The investment market once appeared polarized. Domestic large and medium-sized manufacturers have a lot of orders, relatively good exports, no pressure on stocks, and a strong willingness to increase prices. At the same time, on the other side, a few producers use the measures of increasing rebates and other measures to reduce prices in a disguised form, resulting in poor exports and inventories. However, by the end of August, due to the large price difference between its peers, a large manufacturer cut its offer twice in August, accumulating a price reduction of 2,500 yuan/ton.

In this context, why is the price of titanium dioxide rising again?

Yang Xun said that “Jin 9 Silver 10” is a traditional peak season, coupled with the recent pressure from environmental protection, so that manufacturers in Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Anhui have limited production and production cuts, regional out-of-stock is more obvious, and price increases have become Of course.

Wang Zhishun also said that the survey found that the low inventory of enterprises is the main reason for this round of titanium dioxide companies to increase prices.

“For example, Shandong Dongjia Group was affected by environmental protection inspections and corporate installations in the early stage, and it was suspended for nearly 2 months in advance. Although the installation started in September, the load has not reached full-load operation, the company has basically no inventory sales, and the daily output is only To meet the needs of the old customers, Long Winli also issued an announcement in September that the company restricted production by 30% from September 19 to October 31, reducing supply, and the export market remained good. So it was also very rapid in this round of rising."

He believes that in addition to low inventory, the cost of titanium dioxide has also been uplifted from the previous period. At present, the price of 46% titanium concentrate in Panzhihua is maintained at the level of 1,450 U.S. dollars per ton, and raw material costs are high. At the same time, under the environmental protection supervision, the domestic boilers for titanium dioxide enterprises were mostly converted to natural gas boilers, and the demand for natural gas caused by coal-to-gas conversion this year has increased significantly, leading to the domestic natural gas prices starting to surge in September. As a large gas consumer, the cost of titanium dioxide business increased by 500-600 yuan per ton from the previous period.

Deng Jie, Secretary-General of the China Titanium Dioxide Industry Association, said in an interview that the high price of titanium dioxide dropped after a rebound and was mainly affected by environmental protection policies. Recently, the environmental protection inspectors shut down many small factories. From the upstream raw materials to the downstream titanium dioxide production enterprises, production has declined, which has led to the concentration of production capacity and raw materials, and formed support for the current prices. However, he believes that the formation of support is only a policy effect and it should be short-lived. In terms of business practices and laws, the current round of price increase support will not take too long.

Difficult to support big gains

Experts said that although the limited production has led to low stocks of titanium dioxide, but the downturn of downstream demand, fears that this round of price increases will go faster and faster.

"For the second and third tier companies, price increases only play a role to follow. From the feedback of the recent few days, most companies are not sure about this round of titanium dioxide upswing." Wang Zhishun said that the current major downstream Titanium dioxide prices are obviously lower, and new prices are more difficult to implement. The SMEs still get the goods on demand, and they are not optimistic about the late-stage market. In the end, various titanium dioxide companies have implemented different price hikes. Some companies have won promotions at low prices in order to win a portion of the market.

He believes that regardless of the degree of downstream acceptance, the determination of domestic companies to raise their bids has already been announced. As the overall rising atmosphere is getting stronger, the market's low-end prices have gradually decreased, and the overall market has become a rising trend.

Yang Xun believes that the actual trading situation in the market is not optimistic. Since the beginning of the crisis, the possibility of a sudden turnaround in the Lido market has been very small, but the downstream is also facing a high pressure on the environment and demand has been curbed. Although titanium dioxide rose continuously, most of the manufacturers actually operate flexibly, coupled with the year-end business impulse in the fourth quarter, the actual transaction effect of titanium dioxide or no adjustment of the price letter is so enthusiastic.

According to an interview with reporters, Long Bu Li’s responsible person said that winter production has become more stringent, and limited production of titanium dioxide in cities in northern Henan has been at 30%. Current market supply is still tight, and prices are expected to remain in November. Upgrading space. However, due to the impact of the general shutdown in the winter, the downstream demand of the industry is not booming, this round of gains can hardly support the high price of titanium dioxide back to nearly 20,000 yuan/ton in the mid-year.

"Any closed-loop value chain, the distribution of profits should be within a reasonable range, apparently the current profits of titanium dioxide enterprises get too high. Anything is extremely contradictory. A few years ago, a comprehensive loss of titanium dioxide enterprises is not normal, and current profits are too high. If it is not normal, it will not last long."

Deng Jie said that the titanium dioxide industry itself is an industry with excess capacity. Although this year's environmental protection policy has tightened, many small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production, and large companies have restricted production, resulting in a low inventory of current companies. However, the downstream paint industry also has a lot of production capacity, so this round of low inventory does not cause market panic.



He believes that titanium dioxide companies still have 30% to 40% profit margins, from the perspective of the entire industry chain closed, the current titanium dioxide industry profit distribution is too high is positive. Taking into account the cost increase, 15,000 yuan/ton will be the red line for the reasonable profit margin of titanium dioxide companies. At this price, the company can still maintain a profit of two to three thousand tons.

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